Polymarket and Kalshi now have active real estate prediction markets. We track both, compute the divergence from Parcl daily indices and Case-Shiller data, and tell you where the crowd is pricing in something the official numbers haven't caught up to yet.
LIVE PREVIEW
Every metro gets a Divergence Score — the gap between what prediction market traders are pricing in and what official indices (Parcl daily + Case-Shiller) are showing. A high score is a signal. High absolute value means the crowd is ahead of the data.
Will Phoenix home prices decline in Q1 2026?
Traders are pricing in 43 points more optimism than current data supports in Phoenix.
Resolves Mar 31, 2026 (14d)
Live data in dashboard — this card uses demo values
HOW IT WORKS
We pull real estate prediction markets from both Polymarket (Gamma API) and Kalshi, averaging their signals into a single directional read per metro.
Parcl Labs provides daily home price index feeds for 20+ major metros. Unlike Case-Shiller's 60-day lag, Parcl updates every day — giving us a near-real-time ground truth.
When prediction market sentiment and index data disagree significantly, we flag it. Historically, prediction markets are leading indicators — the data catches up later.
PRICING
First look at the Phoenix market — where prediction traders and daily index data are telling completely different stories.